What do we know, how confidently do we know it and what do we know we dont know? Tyler's intense research leads to stimulating and surprising . Why Valentina Shevchenko Is A Huge Favorite And Jon Jones Isn't At UFC 285,A pair of championships are on the line at UFC 285 in Las Vegas Saturday night, and both title bouts offer a study in contrasts. The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 . Today those numbers have flipped. If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. If you don't already have iTunes, you can download it here. Whereas Tester . FiveThirtyEight Politics Transcripts | Podgist The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. The crew tries to unpack whats driving Democrats legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. I'm Galen Truk. What does it take to make democracy work? Conversations with Tyler | Listen to Tyler Cowen's Official Podcast Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s.". Best FiveThirtyEight Podcasts (2023) - Player The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out. The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing. Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners questions about politics, polling and more. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. They also assess whether narratives from the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia hold up in light of new data, and debate the hottest legislative topic in Washington: permanent Daylight Saving Time. The crew discusses how much the two parties are spending on campaign ads and if it could factor into the forecasts shift. FiveThirtyEight Politics Transcripts | Podgist FiveThirtyEight Politics https://fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts/ Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Courts recent abortion decision. Internet Archive TV NEWS : Search Captions. Borrow Broadcasts They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment. Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. This is the final episode. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper. Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. All rights reserved. The crew discusses the arguments Biden laid out and where he stands with American voters two years into his presidency. They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. FiveThirtyEight Politics on Stitcher Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff. Galen Druke speaks with the director of the Harvard study, Robert Waldinger, about the lessons his findings have for politics in America. The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030. Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEights metric. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end. Hosts of the British Talking Politics podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the Conservative Party have soured on Johnson in a way that Republicans never soured on President Trump, despite his numerous scandals. But you can form your own by listening and learning (and learning how to listen). Rev also gives transcribers the autonomy to work for as much or little as they want. As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. FiveThirtyEight Politics 3 days ago Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade. Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. My mid-week morning train WFH reads: The SPAC Fad Is Ending in a Pile of Bankruptcies and Fire Sales: At least eight businesses that went public through mergers with "blank-check" companies have sought protection from creditors. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling.". Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity. Transcripts by Erin Wade. Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates and Nikole Hannah-Jones July 30, 2021 Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like. FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast | Free Listening on Podbean App We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Tester faces a tough bid, but don't sleep on Brown being the weaker of the two. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but its not the only one. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska. Politics Podcast: Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless' The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? June 2, 2016. Our podcast helps listeners understand what they can be certain about, and what is still unknown. The crew follows up on last weeks Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. By May 21, 2021 0 . The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council.