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The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. I got a life. Theyre scared. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. What Is An Election Bellwether? : NPR We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. Will Ohio's Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable - The Epoch Times (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). Theres significant variability among them, though. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. This includes personalizing content and advertising. We need creative leadership, Miller said. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. With unfounded fraud claims swirling, red California county dumps (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). "If. They need to take care of the older people here. I quit voting once out of the union.. bellwether counties epoch times But according to the. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. Our roads need to be fixed. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. Two states have announced recounts. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC Fact check: These 5 election statistics do not discredit Joe - Yahoo! It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Bellwether counties went overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. Kyiv City Ballet US Premiere | Dance at Northrop Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Theres too much corruption. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Im looking at both sides of it. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. How could the 'bellwether counties' get it so wrong? Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. He considers Trump pro-life. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. This is a high farming community.. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. I think its very political right now, honestly. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Im not even sure what direction were going.. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. This includes personalizing content and advertising. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. Republican Gov. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. Its too big. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. . Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Port Clinton, Ohio. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically.